THERE is a dire need for changes in the system of governance in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata) but given a highly conservative society, they cannot be achieved in any radical manner.

The British and earlier rulers were interested in the control of the routes passing through the tribal areas. The Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) of 1901, which remains in force, was not invented by the British but in fact codified the existing practices in the area.

These arrangements were acceptable to both the British and the tribes. The former had control over the routes and the latter retained the independence to administer the interior according to their traditions. If the tribes misbehaved, the British sent punitive expeditions against them while the government used to pay maliki, lunge, muajib and khasadari allowances to the tribes as remuneration.

Wings of the Frontier Corps manned the garrisons and escorted convoys while the Frontier Constabulary manned the borders between the settled and tribal areas in addition to conducting trivial punitive raids after petty criminals. Political agents and other staff had huge power and were the administrators of this system. Since these officers were selected for their boldness and personal integrity, the system worked well.

In 1948, through a jirga decision the tribal areas acceded to the state of Pakistan on the basis of a promise made by Jinnah that all agreements between the tribes and the former British government would be respected. Resultantly, we now have the same governance system in place even though the objective situation on the ground has changed totally. The system has no relevance to the current environment and is not only against the interests of the ordinary tribesmen it has also kept the area underdeveloped.

While there is consensus on the need for a change in the system, we lack the ingenuity and determination for it. Additionally, there is strong opposition by vested-interest mafias. Law and order cannot be separated from a comprehensive reform agenda that must be implemented gradually, say over five years or so.

Given the current situation, when security forces are reclaiming control of some of the area, it is not possible to suddenly alter Fata’s governance system: in attempting this we may lose control over the area completely. As the security apparatus degrades the forces that have taken the tribes hostage, the political administration must call upon traditional forums to retake control as per tradition. At this critical juncture it is not advisable to tinker with the system.

Those who talk of doing away with or amending the FCR overlook the fact that the FCR is not just a document tabulating crime and punishment but pertains to the entire system of governance in Fata. The legal instruments connecting Fata to the federation of Pakistan are Articles 246 and 247 of the 1973 constitution as well as Clause 1 that lists Fata as a separate federating unit of the country in addition to the four provinces. Those who make too much of the adult franchise in Fata forget that it enables Fata MPs to sit in the federal cabinet but does not allow the extension of this system of governance to these ministers’ constituencies. This is because Fata acceded to the state — not the government — of Pakistan. In other words Pakistan’s systems of governance including policing, revenue collection, the judiciary and parliament are not acceptable to the tribes.

The responsibility for maintaining law and order has been assigned to the tribes which are paid through khasadari allowances. If they fail in this task the only instrument available to the state is collective and territorial responsibility. The dark side of the FCR and human rights notwithstanding, the people here actually have more rights than other citizens.

Consider that a tribesman can buy land or conduct business anywhere in Pakistan but no non-local citizen can own land or conduct business in the tribal areas without the express permission of the tribe concerned, upon which he is totally dependent: the government has no legal power to protect the citizen or his business.

The tribesmen demand development funds but are not prepared to pay taxes. I am not mentioning money collected by the political agents or the FC because that is not deposited in the government treasury — and hence the corruption.

The control of routes through the tribal area is no longer a governmental priority except for trade with Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics. The Pakistan government’s aim should be to develop Fata and bring it into the mainstream.

The four basic functions of the state are the ability to levy and collect taxes in a transparent manner, their judicious spending on development and welfare, the ability to take cognisance of crimes to protect citizens’ lives and property and to provide justice.

To achieve this in the tribal areas the government needs to work out the modalities before considering the withdrawal of the FCR. If the word ‘police’ is offensive to the tribes they may find Amniat Force or Amniat Chowki acceptable.

Similarly, integrating the jirgas with the courts could produce a hybrid system that may be worth emulating elsewhere. The aim must be to dovetail government control into the area’s traditional systems and makes the ordinary tribesman a stakeholder. Only then can results be produced.

Such reforms have already been worked out in minute detail and are available to the government — each new administration need not start all over again. These include the reorganisation of the law-enforcement systems and financial, judicial, structural and administrative reforms. What is needed is the will and determination to implement them.

Reforms in Fata are long overdue but they cannot be brought about in a radical manner. A dedicated team with adequate knowledge and motivation must implement a carefully worked-out agenda over time.

THERE are reports in the US media that the US government is mulling over the possibility of conducting strikes and troops incursions inside Pakistan. There is a belief that this will happen if the latter fails to start operations in North Waziristan as per America’s dictates.

Although the US government at times denies such reports, the stark warning issued by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — when she stated that if a Faisal Shahzad-type incident in America was traced to Pakistan there would be dangerous consequences for the country — should not be taken lightly.

Since our government has no control over the activities of US citizens of Pakistani origin, it needs to take the threat seriously. Another dangerous insinuation by Ms Clinton was that mid-ranking officers in the Pakistani government knew the location of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Mullah Omar inside Pakistan. She wants to shift the responsibility of the last eight years’ failed US war in Afghanistan to Pakistan.

What can be these dangerous consequences mentioned by the US secretary of state? These can range from economic sanctions, air strikes inside Pakistan, cajoling India to undertake incursions inside Pakistan and conducting US Marines attacks inside Pakistan among other options. The US must have worked out a plan against Pakistan. The Pakistan Army being a professional army must or should also have worked out a counter-response. If so, a statement by our Foreign Office to the effect that Pakistan being an ally of US in this war on terror would never want a war with the US, a superpower, but that if the US insists it would find Pakistan ready for the consequences, would be in order.

But what worries the common man is that the response from the government has been extremely muted. Does that mean that Pakistan will take such aggression lying down? Has the government minutely examined these threats?

Sanctions are an old story and we have been through it many times. Pakistan has a large black economy which is probably the size of the official economy so that sanctions would not hurt the common man. Its major impact will be felt in the lack of spare parts for equipment from the US for our armed forces.

From the point of view of military strategy it is common practice to study the vulnerabilities of the enemy and make plans to accentuate these, as it is to consider one’s own strong points and build upon these. The US has a large number of troops in Afghanistan that are dependent for logistics on Pakistan. The US is also vulnerable in the sense that it can’t sustain a large number of casualties because of its domestic politics. Besides its diplomatic staff, the US has some personnel in Pakistan under the garb of training and intelligence-sharing teams and contractors, auditors and streams of visitors in connection with aid programmes.

The Americans have a base at Shamsi in Balochistan. They also have had agents recruited in our bureaucracy, among our politicians, in Fata and, perhaps, even in the armed forces. The US is presently interested in strengthening its intelligence-sharing teams in Peshawar and Quetta. The government and the army must study all this and politely but firmly decline all those requests (read demands) which are detrimental to our national security.

The US defeat or, to put it in more euphemistic terms, failure in Afghanistan is a foregone conclusion. The question is only whether the Americans will be able to beat an orderly retreat and manage an honourable exit or be caught up in a Vietnam-like situation. We should be looking at a post-US withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan and also analyse how to protect ourselves in this process of withdrawal in view of Ms Clinton’s statement and the US media’s insinuations.

Let’s be frank with ourselves: the US is no friend of Pakistan or Afghanistan or for that matter of the Muslim world. And anyway we have to see to our national interests which guide the country’s policies. We should shun wishful thinking and pretensions. Mr Obama’s latest strategic thoughts consist of some very noble ideas and sound concepts but will the US establishment implement these in letter and spirit? One appreciates the US president’s vision but one is not confident that he can act upon these given the present environment.

If the US carries out its threats against Pakistan as postulated by Ms Clinton then Pakistan would be the third Muslim country in a row after the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan to have been affected in a similar manner. What will be the reaction of the Islamic world? Mind you, Pakistan is the only Muslim nuclear state.

The writer is an ex-brigadier who was formerly Fata secretary and home secretary Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Pakistan is caught in the eye of the storm in the international war on terror. Those involved in this war are reassessing their respective roles after mixed results over the last eight years with many pluses and minuses.

The situation is rapidly evolving in the region with grave consequences for Pakistan. It is a test for the country’s leadership to steer Pakistan to safe shores.

A chequered course has been followed over the last eight years but it was only in 2008 and 2009 that the government realised the seriousness of the situation and decided to confront the monster of terrorism head-on.

It was the media which, by exposing the ideas, character and actions of the terrorists swung public opinion, against anti-state elements and forced the government to act.

In 2009 the armed forces of Pakistan, in a major reorientation, carried out well-conceived operations in Malakand division and South Waziristan Agency, besides some minor operations in Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram and Orakzai agencies. These operations broke the back of militancy and forced the militants to retreat.

Due to the success of these operations the armed forces and the government won accolades both internally and internationally. Because of this and some other factors, the pressure on Pakistan has eased and there is greater realisation regarding Pakistan’s role in the war internationally.

It is no coincidence that the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal have published no conspiracy theories about Pakistan for the last three to four months. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s change in attitude at the recently held Saarc conference is also due to Pakistan’s improved international profile.

And yet there is no room for complacency. The situation on the ground is that most of the militant leadership has not been apprehended. In the case of South Waziristan most of the fighters have escaped to neighbouring North Waziristan. The operation in Orakzai has turned into a slow slog.

The terrorists, after a brief pause, have again started attacking ‘soft targets’ in Kohat, Quetta and Peshawar. The insurgents — through targeted killings and suicide attacks in Swat — are reminding the inhabitants that they are not very far away. North Waziristan, particularly Mir Ali sub-division, is becoming a new hub for all sorts of insurgents. Understandably, the army is overstretched and can’t be everywhere. But if the operational momentum of 2009 is not maintained in 2010, then the gains made will be untenable.

The solution lies with the political government both at the federal and provincial levels, which has so far been busy with the 18th Amendment including changing the name of the province, the NRO, etc. It is time that the government came forward to shoulder its responsibilities alongside the army. The army has been in Swat for too long. It cannot catch each and every insurgent both in Swat and South Waziristan.

Once the operation is wrapped up it is time for local traditions and the local administration — including the local police — to take over. Policing and development activities are not the army’s function. Similarly it’s not the job of the army to arrange school functions, sporting events or musical programmes. The political leadership and administration need to come up and shoulder their responsibilities, no matter how challenging the task may be.

It’s time for the Fata administration to end its long vacation. It must also be coerced into closing down the Fata Development Authority (FDA). There is already a planning and development department in the Fata secretariat. The administration is fooling no one but itself. The army must facilitate the induction of a civil administration because it is basically the civil administration which has to deal with issues on the ground.

So far the political leadership and administration have confined themselves to issuing statements after a suicide attack. But it’s really action on the ground which counts and they must come forward to relieve troops for operational tasks and must not expect them to run their administration.

North Waziristan is becoming a new home for anti-state elements and it is only a question of time before the militants become fully operational against the Pakistani state. If the kidnapping of Sultan Amir Tarar (also known as Col Imam), British-born Pakistani journalist Asad Qureshi and the killing of retired squadron leader Khalid Khawaja is deeply analysed, it would appear that Hafiz Gul Bahadur or the TTP for that matter are not that strong and might not be able to prevent a similar incident from taking place in future.

The group calling itself Asian Tigers might signal new trouble for Pakistan. This group reportedly consists of disgruntled elements from the so-called Punjabi Taliban and some expelled elements from the TTP. If they recruit foreigners present in North Waziristan, the situation could become extremely dangerous.

North Waziristan’s location, geography and tribal mix present a very challenging situation for a military operation. And one would like to avoid committing one’s own troops for an operation if it can be helped. But as time passes an operation in North Waziristan will become a requirement and the army may have to bite the bullet again here.

An operation in North Waziristan will need a large number of troops. But as they say: how does one eat an elephant? Dissect it into manageable pieces and eat it. A roller operation all over North Waziristan may not be necessary. The clearance and control of Mir Ali along with some areas of Shiva tehsil may be enough. This will also consolidate our grip on the Mehsud area.

The year 2010 is very crucial for Pakistan and the foreign forces in Afghanistan. The US will be assessing, at the end of the year, whether it should start pulling out in 2011 and Pakistan should be aiming at regaining control of its tribal areas.

The writer is an ex-brigadier, ex-secretary Fata and ex-home secretary Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

INDIA has been toying with the idea of the Cold Start strategy for the past six years. It started validating the concept through various military exercises, including Divya Astra (divine weapon) in March 2004, Vijra Shakti (thunder power) in May 2005, Desert Strike in Nov-Dec 2005, Sang-i-Shakti (joint power) from March to May 2006, Shatrunash in May 2007 and Ashwamedh (valour and intellectual illumination) from January to May 2007.

With the nuclear shadow hanging over India and Pakistan and the location of Pakistan’s core areas along the border, there is no room for conventional war between the two countries. Yet Indian military thinkers are bent upon convincing their political leadership that this space for conventional war exists and that they can achieve it through the Cold Start strategy without provoking a nuclear response from Pakistan. Through this concept, they are trying to justify new infrastructural development for forward cantonments.

Essentially the concept is that unlike a conventional war where a country mobilises first and then goes to war, here you attack first and mobilise later. It is a dangerous concept and amounts to playing with fire.

Once Indian armed forces cross the international border into Pakistan’s territory, why should the latter’s armed forces not respond? India could be thinking in terms of a limited war and electing not to defend the ‘lodgement’ made in Pakistan’s territory in order not to escalate the situation, a la the Kargil situation where Pakistan did not own the lodgement or defend it with its air force.

That situation left the Indian army free to deal with it as it chose. India can now choose to make the same mistake. But it is with such a situation in mind that exercise Azm-i-Nau3 appears to have been conceived — a portion of the armed forces as a combined armed team supported by the Pakistan air force deals with a lodgement made by the Indian army under the Cold Start concept.

During the exercise, it was heartening to note the capabilities and technologies added to Pakistan’s army and air force. It was an excellent demonstration of fire power, watched as it was by the country’s prime minister, parliamentarians, members of the defence committee, retired army chiefs, the military and defence attachés of other countries and the national and international media — although some people questioned the media coverage and the message that was intended to be conveyed.

Cold Start has been under study over the past year through a number of war games. One conclusion the Pakistan Army would have reached is that India would probably be required to mount an extra manoeuvre to justify a war against Pakistan.

Some people in both countries are involved in an India-Pakistan peace initiative, which is commendable. Yet the mindset of the Indian political leadership is well-known: the country is placing conditions even for restarting the composite dialogue. And, notwithstanding the compulsions faced by the India political leadership, it is also essential to read their military’s thinking.

Peace between the two countries cannot be a one-sided affair. The public and international communities need to understand the dilemma faced by Pakistan in the face of Indian intransigence. Pakistan’s armed forces are involved on the country’s western front in context of the war on terror, while India continues to pose a threat along the eastern borders.

Pakistan cannot afford to ignore these threats. The concept of Azm-i-Nau3 hinges on the condition that India keeps the incursion limited — but this is doubtful. If India does not keep the incursion limited, which is more likely, the situation may well spiral out of control.

Pakistan has no option other than that of the idea of first use in its nuclear doctrine. Yet despite this compulsion, Pakistan has chosen not to adopt a ‘push button’ concept such as that opted for by the US, whose president is always accompanied by a briefcase containing push buttons and codes. Instead, Pakistan has chosen a ‘force in being’ concept, expecting that it will have sufficient time to upgrade its state of preparedness.

In view of the risk inherent in the Cold Start strategy, India must understand that while there is no harm in dreaming, actions in this context can have dangerous results.

The writer is a retired brigadier, former secretary Fata and home secretary NWFP.
mahmoodshah@mahmoodshah.com

Pakistan is in the full blast of attacks by Al-Qaida through a declared policy announced and implemented through various surrogates by weakening the state of Pakistan through creating anarchy in the country in the shape of bombing and suicide attacks. Pakistani Talibans have wrested the control of FATA from the government. Talibans through an aggressive policy and encouraged by weak and inconsistent government response has forced the Provincial and Federal Government on back foot. The people in NWFP are losing confidence in the government and its law enforcement agencies. US through their CIA driven attacks on Pakistani territory violating its borders is further weakening the State of Pakistan.

In view of the open assault by non state actors and the fact that a democratically government has just taken over, the powers that be, should have strengthened the hands of state of Pakistan to fight back this menace. Instead the state of Pakistan is being weakened through manipulations and various pressure tactics. What is the purpose? Many people think that this is part of that American great design in which US want to prepare India as a possible check mate to Chinese rising power in the region. In this scheme of things some maps also appeared about the future of Pakistan possibly for freeing India from the threat of Pakistan and to also denuclearize the only Islamic nuclear state.

It is with this back ground in mind that Bombay carnage has happened at a very critical time. There is a possibility that Al-Qaida could have planned this at a time sensing that Pakistan could shift major forces to its western borders to hold and roll back its gains in NWFP. It is also possible that the international conspiracy against Pakistan is at work and want to use this incident to further pressurize Pakistan ” to do more”. In the process if the state of Pakistan becomes weaker and destabilized they would demand that the state of Pakistan is too weak and vulnerable to a take over by extremist elements therefore its nuclear arsenal be handed over to international control. Down the road if Pakistan becomes Balkanized these powers stipulate that it will be easy to control these small client states.

The Indians, in spite of, knowing that it is a case of international terrorism would continue to use it against Pakistan for their electoral politics which is always impacted by the basic Hindu mentality under the thin veneer of secularism locally and internationally to continue to blackmail Pakistan as a major den of international terrorism in her ambitions of becoming a regional power. India considers Pakistan as the only obstacle in her hegemonic ambitions. The US also knowing fully well that Pakistan cannot underwrite the security of US led NATO forces in Afghanistan would like Pakistan to do more. Because they need an escape goat for their failures in Afghanistan. They instead of strengthening the government and the armed forces of Pakistan in the shape of transferring the essential technology required in this type of warfare like the Predators, Drones, Night Vision Devices(NVDS), Helicopters and Electronic Surveillance Equipment would like to micro-manage the Defense Affairs in Pakistan to as much depth as to the management of Frontier Corps training. Their aid efforts in development sector will also be managed by a huge USAID establishment in Pakistan. The domestic costs for accepting such conditions for any government in Pakistan would be unacceptable and unaffordable. But the US will not relent on its conditions therefore they will also use this opportunity to further pressurize Pakistan “to do more”.

This may not be the last terrorism act taking place on Indian soil although one would not wish so but there could be more because Al-Qaida is not only a physical threat but has shaped into a doctrine. The Indian society is highly vulnerable because of disaffection in its vast Muslim minority. The incident has also highlighted some major weaknesses in Indian security and intelligence capabilities. The international community should be worried that if ten highly trained and motivated people can sneak in through sea, enter a highly sensitive zone and keep the Indian Security Armada at bay for sixty hours as to how secure will be the Indian Nuclear facilities.

In spite of all these difficulties Pakistan has the capacity to ward off all these threats to its existance if we put our trust in Allah and in ourselves. We have economic difficulties because of our own mismanagement. We have relied too much on US for last sixty years. We need to have another in camera session of the two houses of Parliament to charter our future course for economic development on a regional approach. We need to distance ourselves from US while keeping cordial relations and this need not be discussed in media any further. We need not get unnerved or overwhelmed by the enormity of the threat. We need to re evaluate the total threat that we are facing both on our eastern and western fronts realistically without any fixations and dispose off our forces on ground accordingly to meet the threat. The threat on our eastern front would be more of blackmailing because of the deterrence available in terms of our nuclear capability and this is what nuclear capability is meant for. We need to diffuse the situation there through qualitative diplomacy. The threat on our western front is far more real, complex and dangerous and need to be taken more seriously. We need to work out a comprehensive and robust response on our western front to ward off this scourge of terrorism from our soil. Our success here will demoralize all the forces and powers arraigned against us.

The Writer is a retired brigadier and former secretary Fata
mahmoodshah@mahmoodshah.com

THE government’s warning that it would have to withdraw troops from its western border in case of a threat on its eastern frontier with India was not only uncalled for, it was unrealistic as well. The continuous harping on this issue on TV talk shows is creating a negative impact in the NWFP and FATA.

Such tendencies in the past, including an overemphasis on the Kashmir issue, and without any tangible results created negative feelings in the former East Pakistan. Although East Pakistan’s population was larger than that of West Pakistan, not only did the issues discussed concern the interests of the western wing but most of our troops were also deployed in West Pakistan.

Without meaning to sound parochial, the fact is that there are similar feelings in the NWFP and FATA at this point of time. Defending territory and ensuring the security of its people is the foremost responsibility of the state. Unless it is proactive in ensuring that it is fulfilling this responsibility, other countries and non-state actors (an increasing phenomenon presently in FATA and the NWFP) will be encouraged to encroach upon the security foundations of a neglectful state.

Pakistan’s views on the subject of moving troops from one border to the other were meant more for US consumption and discussing these on TV talk shows would be tantamount to encouraging non-state actors and creating negative feelings among the people of the NWFP and FATA.

Meanwhile, the reported views of some security officials that Baitullah Mehsud and Maulana Fazlullah are patriotic Pakistanis are laughable. The kind of demoralising effect this has had on local law-enforcement agencies and elders (who should be in the forefront when it comes to checking the enemy from within) is not difficult to imagine. If Baitullah and Fazlullah are patriots, how should one categorise our law-enforcement agencies and local elders who are pitted against them and are losing their lives to attacks on a daily basis?

The assertion that our tribes will defend the western border is doubtful because they have been overrun by a superior and motivated force. It is no longer 1948 or 1965 when these tribesmen with rustic weapons but superior motivation and fighting techniques in the mountainous area were able to add to our fighting strength. We are living in 2008 and must keep the battlefield of the 21st century in mind. Our tribals are not cannon fodder just to be thrown into these battlefields. If their services are required we must work out a proper plan on how to use these. In any case, they are not available at this point of time and we must not deceive ourselves.

Even after the Mumbai attacks, the threat on our eastern border is not a credible one. Given Pakistan’s nuclear status, India would not want to commit the blunder of attacking the eastern border. Core areas like Sialkot, Lahore and Rahimyar Khan are perilously close to our eastern border. It is no longer possible to have a limited war between India and Pakistan without provoking a nuclear response from Pakistan. Therefore, any threat emanating from our eastern border is largely taken care of by the country’s nuclear status.

In the present day, no country in the world can afford a nuclear war or should even think about it. The real purpose of having nuclear weapons is the deterrent value which these provide and we could exploit this by reducing the deployment of conventional forces along the eastern border.

NWFP and FATA inhabitants ask that if all politicians can unite when faced with a threat from India even when the forces have not been moved, why can’t they sit together to debate the threat emanating from our western border and give it the same degree of importance.

Understandably the Indian government and media overreacted to the unfortunate incident in Mumbai but there is no reason for the same response on our part. The NWFP and FATA are already under attack and the enemy is within our territories. Our complacent attitude towards the enormous threat on our western border is not understandable. Our military and political leadership appears to suffer from some kind of mental fixation and seems equipped to handle only threats from India. We cannot reorient ourselves to respond effectively to a new situation.

US drones are attacking our tribal, even settled, areas and even then we are unable to stop our enemies from whatever it is doing. In case we pull out our forces from the western border they will simply walk into our territories. Therefore the warning that in case of a threat on our eastern border we would have to pull out forces from our western border is not only unrealistic, it is also making the people of the NWFP and FATA feel demoralised. The government must re-evaluate the threats on both borders and carry out a major redeployment of our forces as per this new threat perception.

The writer is a retired brigadier and former secretary, FATA.

Pakistan is caught in the eye of the storm in the so-called war on terror between the US and its allies on one side and Al Qaeda and the Taliban on the other.

Due to America’s faulty strategy in Afghanistan, the US and its allies have not been able to eliminate Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. In fact the conflagration has reached dangerous proportions and can threaten the whole region. Sensing failure other regional powers have been advancing their own agendas in Afghanistan. The fallout from the situation in Afghanistan on Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear state and one with a weakening system of governance, not only has the potential to destabilise the Pakistani state but also carries dangerous implications for South Asian peace and security.

Unfortunately Pakistan’s rulers are underestimating the gravity of the situation. They have not worked out an effective strategy to deal with it. On the other hand Al Qaeda and the Taliban have wrested control of most of the tribal areas from the government. The NWFP government has been rendered ineffective.

Its police and other law-enforcement agencies have been targeted and the political leadership has been discouraging as far as organising resistance to the steady growth of Talibanisation is concerned. Society is being terrorised into submission. Mosques, hujras, jirgas and marriage and funeral gatherings are being attacked. Anyone who tries to oppose the radical elements, be it a religious scholar, a politician or an elder, is either eliminated or threatened with serious consequences. The rules of engagement are simple and clear.

Society leaders dare not speak out against Al Qaeda or the Taliban in the NWFP. Meanwhile, US drone attacks in Pakistan’s territory are making a mockery of the country’s sovereignty and violating the sanctity of its borders.

The suicide-bombing strategy employed by Al Qaeda is not a new concept. It is rooted in history. Al Qaeda has carefully advanced it in order to capture control of Islamic societies particularly in Pakistan. A suicide bomber causes maximum damage because he knows he doesn’t have to get away from the target and therefore can get as close to it as possible to inflict maximum damage. This tactic works well in a Muslim society where he can mix with others without being suspected. This has not worked well in the US or Europe or Israel, even Chechnya. So Al Qaeda’s suicide bombing tactic is based on a Muslim-kills-Muslim philosophy.

Al Qaeda believes that killing Americans through suicide bombings will not cause the US to become a Muslim state but if more Pakistanis are killed the resulting anarchy might create conditions for a global khilafat (caliphate). According to its thought processes, if it kills more Pakistanis through suicide bombings, Pakistan will become a stricter adherent of Islam and that will be the first building block of a khilafat.

On the other hand, US-led forces in Afghanistan, according to their misconceived strategy, think that by eliminating Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri they will be able to quell this ideological movement. They deliberately or otherwise cannot understand that the solution lies in stabilising the region through a major development strategy and by strengthening the system of governance in Pakistan.

Many think tanks even in the US feel that this so-called war on terror is more of a ploy and the real intentions lie somewhere else. They feel that the US has no intention of pulling out of this area in the immediate future for other strategic reasons. The continued US presence in the region must be a source of concern for the Russians and Chinese. The Central Asian Republics must be worried. Iran must also be feeling threatened. India, a budding regional power, has also joined in. With this great game unfolding in Afghanistan, Pakistan should understand the implications. After all the operations by the local Taliban in Pakistan need finances and meticulous planning. Ignorance can be a blessing but not always. The US drone attacks in Pakistan are tantamount to weakening the state in the face of the open onslaught by Al Qaeda and its surrogates.

Understandably India is Pakistan’s enemy and given half a chance will not hesitate to undo the state of Pakistan. However, this threat receded to a great extent after we became a nuclear state. There is a tacit understanding that if a certain threshold is crossed Pakistan may be tempted to use the nuclear option which would have devastating implications for India, Pakistan and the region.

In view of these circumstances there is an urgent need for a re-evaluation of the threat that Pakistan is facing on its western and eastern borders. The threat that is originating from our western borders is far more complex and dangerous than the one along our eastern border. The threat is far more serious and real than our realisation and understanding of the situation at this point of time.

At present we have only one corps located in Peshawar and another in Balochistan. All other seven or eight corps are focused on our eastern border. If a deeper and more comprehensive reappraisal of the threat along our western and eastern borders is carried out in a realistic manner without any bias, prejudice and pre-fixations, it will become apparent that the situation calls for the reorientation of our forces and posture. This may involve shifting three to four corps from our eastern frontier to the western borders. This will have a positive effect on our population and will go a long way in restoring the confidence of the people in the Pakistani government and state.

Keeping aside the allegations that the government and its agencies are playing a double game and that the military is shadow-boxing, the people seriously doubt whether our armed forces have the capability or capacity to fight the ragtag force of the so-called Taliban. The people of the NWFP are ready to take them on but lose confidence when they see a lacklustre approach by the government and state. This is the time for a major rethink regarding our threat hypothesisation and strategic orientation to deal with the complex situation on our western borders.

The writer is a retired brigadier and former secretary Fata.

mahmoodshah@mahmoodshah.com

1.1. Afghanistan particularly its area south of Hindukush range and Pakistan’s tribal area, North West Frontier Province and northern portion of Baluchistan, collectively constituting the Pathan majority land lying between the Hindukush range and the Indus river, have remained a focal point not only for historians but also for those trying to extend their imperial borders. These extensions have been either to the south or east as in the case of earlier conquerors from Central Asia and the USSR in recent times or to the west or north as by the Imperial British in the 19th and 20th centuries. Dominant civilisations always expand in search for security, stability of their frontiers and to safeguard their economic and commercial interests. Such great movements are well known in history; they continue until they either overrun their strength as in the case of USSR in Afghanistan, or until they find a formidable wall in the form of an equally stable civilisation, or by reaching a natural frontier such as a great mountain range, desert or the sea.

1.2. The great mountain range of Hindukush passing through Afghanistan from north east to south west just north of Kabul is just one such frontier. It separates Central Asia from South Asia. The geo- strategic location of this area sometimes gives Afghanistan the status of a’ buffer state’ and sometimes it becomes a bone of contention between the powers that be. The Pakistani tribal belt from Baluchistan in the south to Chitral in the north is strategically so located that the presence of unsurpassable Pamir Knot, the Karakrums and Chinese Great wall in the north and inhospitable Iranian Desert and Arabian sea in the south makes it the only gate way for invasions of the sub continent and vice versa.

1.3. The Aryans, the Persians, the Greeks, the Kushans, the Huns, the Mongols, the Mughals, the Durranis, the Sikhs and the Colonial British had to pass through this area for their stakes in the perpetual Great Game played on the vast and majestic panorama of Central Asia stretching from the mighty Indus to the Kazakh Steppe beyond Kizilkum desert. The people in the plains of sub continent had been keen observers of the tremors, waves and vibrations in this area. The constant exposure of the area to foreign invasions, trade caravans and political turmoil brought about by various dynasties through out history in this area has influenced the society of this area in every sphere of life. It has interlinked the fates of all the people inhabiting it, irrespective of the location of national boundaries drawn or redrawn at any given period by predominant powers of the time.

1.4. The continued presence of US led forces in Afghanistan and their failure to prevent the resurgence of Taliban in Afghanistan and the spreading of this menace to the Tribal Area of Pakistan must be seen with this historical and geographical perspective in mind. History seems to be repeating itself. The world, with modern nation states concept sees Pakistan and Afghanistan as two different states and also appreciates the role played by Pakistan as a frontline state in this war on terror. Yet they fail to understand the reason for interference in Afghanistan from its tribal area because they fail to understand the historical interconnectivity between the tribal areas of Pakistan, and Afghanistan over-arching the modern nation boundaries. The reorganisation of Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas of Pakistan and some other extremist elements are not only posing a threat to US led forces in Afghanistan but are also endangering the Federation of Pakistan with further implications for peace and security of South Asia and South East Asia. It is therefore absolutely essential to understand the interconnectivity between Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan and the spill over effects on either side.

2. Interconnectivity: Tribal areas and Afghanistan
- An Historical Perspective

2.1 The history of this area can be traced back almost to the period of recorded history. It was around 1600 B.C that the Aryans are stated to have traversed the passes in the Tribal Areas to settle down in the Plains of South Asia. The Persian in and around 550 B.C followed them. Cyrus the Great made the area into a Province of the then Persian Empire. In 327 B.C Alexander the Great along with Macedonian army marched into North West Frontier via Nawa Pass in Bajaur Agency. He is stated to have visited almost the entire Yousafzai belt. The tide of armies marching from the east stopped with the rise of Mauryans in India.

2.2 Ashoka was the first to advance from the east. He crossed into the area west of Indus, and subjugated Peshawar Valley. Gandhara civilization owes its origin to the period coinciding with 323 BC. Kanishka – the Kushan King dominated not only Gandhara – the Peshawar Valley –but Afghanistan also. The famous Buddhist stupas and monasteries were built during his reign. The downfall of Kushan dynasty around 225 AD provided yet another opportunity for the invaders.

2.3 The famous among the new horde of invaders were the white Huns in the fifth Century AD. This period saw the downfall of Buddhism and devastation of Gandhara civilization. Rajput kings – Jaipal & Anand Pal – were probably the strongest Hindu rulers who had some control over Afghanistan and the Frontier. Mahmood Ghaznavi started the fresh wave of invaders from the Central Asia in 1000 AD, and established Afghan domination over the sub continent which lasted for almost 500 years. The Mongols under Genghis were next to venture into this area in 1220 AD in pursuit of Khawarzim Shah Mughals, the descendents of Mongols came into contact with tribes in early sixteenth Century Mughal Empire saw its glory till the end of Aurangzeb Alamgir’s era in 1707.

2.4 The invasion of India by Nadir Shah and his murder on his return journey culminated in a sovereign proclamation by Ahmad Shah Durrani which laid the foundation of Durrani Dynasty in 1749. The downfall of Durranis due to their family feuds provided a golden opportunity to Ranjeet Singh, the Governor of the then Punjab to declare independence in 1834. He snatched Peshawar from Durranis. In 1836 the Sikhs built Fatheh Garh at Jamrud.

2.5 The westward march of the Sikhs was followed by a more vigorous, determined and farsighted imperial power, The British. The Sikhs fought their wars. As a matter of fact the Sikhs were made, for no rhyme or season, to take up arms against the Afghan rulers. It proved fatal for the Sikhs as well as the Afghans. The period between 1825 and 1834 saw the Sikhs rising to their zenith while the period from 1834 to 1846 saw the hostilities between the Sikhs and Afghans gradually progressing towards their down fall. In 1849 the British annexed Punjab and with this annexation the East India Company established its direct rule on the Frontier and indirect administration over the tribal areas.

2.6 The advent of Nineteenth Century saw two imperial powers; Czarist Russia and Colonial British, involved in a race of expansion. The Russians were expanding eastwards with an horrific speed of 25 sq. kMs per day while the Imperial British were determined to match the onslaught with a formidable defense as far away as possible from the plains of Punjab and coastal area of Sind and Baluchistan.

2.7. The struggle was evident in every step taken by the British with regard to Frontier and the Tribal Areas. The Afghan wars were fought to this end. The Political Agencies and tribal area specific system of administration was evolved for the same purpose. Afghanistan was carved out as a buffer state and an area falling within the exclusive sphere of influence of British and to the exclusion of the Russia in particular. The “Forward Policy”, “The close Border Policy” and above all the “Policy of Masterly Inactivity” were some of the masterpieces produced by tacticians engaged in the “Great Game”.

2.8 1839 saw the devastating effects of colonial engagement with the frontier tribes. It was for the first time in the history of this area that a regular army with all its imperial grandeur marched towards Afghanistan. The tribes rightly saw this as a permanent threat to their independence that had been retained through out recorded history. The tribes consistently insisted on retaining their freedom while the imperial British were worried about the approaching danger of Russian influence. The struggle concluded in evolution of the existing tribal system.

2.9 In 1947 with the creation of Pakistan all the tribes up to Durand Line and the chiefs of the four frontier princely states of Dir, Swat, Chitral and Amb decided to join Pakistan of their own free will.

3. Interconnectivity: Tribal Areas and Afghanistan
- A Geo/Socio Perspective

3.1 Afghanistan is a land locked and highly mountainous country located at the junction of Central Asia, South Asia and South West Asia. The country has an area of 647,500, square KM with a population of multi-ethnicity and multi-lingual 32,738,376 people. It borders Turkmenistan (744KM), Uzbekistan (137KM), and Tajikistan (1206KM) in the north, Iran (936KM) on its west and beside a small border of about 76 KM in the north east borders Pakistan for 2430 KM in the east and south.

3.2 Most of the area of Afghanistan is mountainous except for some plain area in the north and south west; most of the area in the south and west bordering Pakistan and Iran being semi desert. Afghanistan derives its strategic importance from the presence of famous Hindukush Range which enters its territory north east of Kabul emerging from unsurpassable Pamir Knot, passes north of Kabul and tapers off into small hillocks in the vicinity of Herat. This massive mountain range acts as a watershed for River Oxus in the north, the present boundary between Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics and River Indus in the south western direction. The military significance of this mountain range is that it acts as a major barrier between Central Asia and South Asia.

3.3 Beside this mountain range the mountain ranges of Koh -e- sufaid and Koh-e-Sulaiman again off shoots from Pamir Knot encompassing the present Pak Afghan border contain some critical passes which act as last doors/obstacle before breaking in to the plains of the Sub Continent and vice versa. The present Pak Afghan border also called the Durand Line was agreed upon between Sir Mortimor Durand and Amir Abdur Rehman of Afghanistan in 1893 and subsequently ratified. Pakistan inherited this border as successor state to British ruler in this area.

3.1 The International border between Pakistan and Afghanistan makes lot of military sense but remains porous due to the fact that it divides the same ethnic society on both sides of the border. Although there are many international borders that divide ethnic communities but over a period of time the communities become used to it and it acquires permanency in the psyche of the people too. However in this case the people in the tribal areas still live as tribes and have not reached that stage of evolution where individual economic interests disintegrate a tribal society into individual family groups and so on. Thus here the same tribes hold sway over both sides of the international border, thereby reducing its comparative sanctity in the eyes of the local populace.

3.2 Pakistan has a total of 2430 km long border with Afghanistan. Out of which half is located in Baluchistan and the other half in NWFP. The area along the border in NWFP is a proper tribal area which is referred to as FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) whereas the area in Baluchistan although inhabited by tribes is no longer a classical tribal area except for Marri and Bugti area which do not lie on the border with Afghanistan but do affect Bolan Pass to an extant. Historically Major Sandeman who subdued most of the tribal area of Balochistan followed a different model of administration than in NWFP, as it was easy to negotiate with these powerful sardars. At that time and after partition 4 agencies i.e. Dera Bugti, Kohlu, Chaghai, and Zhob had been created as Provincial administered tribal areas. The area almost south of Lak Pass consisted of Kalat, Kharan, Lasbella and Makran states and the area along the Bolan Pass and the area north of Bolan was referred to as British Balochistan. In 1982 due to laps of an ordinance these agencies have ceased to exist and these have got converted into districts. The poor law and order situation in these districts explains the lack of any proper mechanism to replace the previous system.

3.3 However, the area north of Gomal river has a different type of tribal community. Here each tribe as a well-knit community lives on its own without any extraneous pressure. These tribes put together have over a period of time developed a distinct socio-judicial code of life which regulates their day to day life including their inter tribal and intra tribal affairs. As said earlier the Pushtuns or Pukhtuns from Indus to Hindukush Range are not only the same people but share the same religious, sociological and cultural values. Out of a population of 42 million of Pushtuns (2003 Figures) excluding 2.5 million of Afghan Refugees, 13 million reside in Afghanistan, 28 million in Pakistan and about 1 million in other countries. This Geo-Socio commonality is further accentuated by the presence of same tribes straddling across the present Pak Afghan International Border. Since these tribes have very close affinities within their respective tribes. They would like to attend marriage and funeral ceremonies and discuss their internal tribal affairs therefore this aspect coupled with extreme mountainous terrain makes this border extremely difficult to be sealed. In Baluchistan the main pushtun tribes living astride both sides of the border, beside some Baluch tribes in the south, are Mohammad Khels, Nurzais, Achakzais, Kakars, and a mixture of Mandokhels, Kharotis, Nasirs, and Sulimankhels up to River Gomal. In NWFP the Ahmadzai wazirs of South Waziristan Agecy and Uthmanzai Wazirs with Gurbuz of North Waziristan Agency, Muqbals Jajjis and Mangals of Kurrum Agency, Shinwaris of Khyber Agency Kodakhel and Khugakhel beside Musakhels and Isakhels of Mohmand Agency and Mamund and Salarzai of Bajaur Agency are major tribes living both sides of the border. They are also called ‘Assured Tribes. So beside the over arching connections that Pushtuns of NWFP and Baluchistan have with the Pushtuns in Afghanistan, these ‘Assured Tribes’ living on both sides of the border provide an adhesive element in this whole process of connectivity However in spite of this feeling of ‘oneness’ the Pushtuns in Pakistan less the Tribal Area are better educated and civilised as compared to their brethrens in Afghanistan or the Tribal Area and there fore it should not be assumed that the International Border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is disputed in any way and the tribes living on both sides of the border fully respect the International Border between the two countries and will not allow one to encroach upon the territory of another. And although , Afghan is an old term for Pushtuns historically, however, over a period of time the people on the Afghan side of the border call themselves as ‘Afghans’ and the people on the Pakistani side of the border normally like call themselves as ‘Pushtuns’ or ‘Pukhtuns’. As such the term ‘Afghan’ now has become a geographical term where Pushtuns (42% of population of Afghanistan),Tajiks (27%), Uzbeks (9%), Hazaras (9%) Tukomans(3%) and others (10%) would like to call themselves Afghans irrespective of their ethnicity.

3.4 In pre partition period the base of power was either Kabul or Delhi, therefore this tribal area acted as a buffer between these competing powers. They exacted remuneration from anyone who passed through their areas. This arrangement existed right from the time of Ahmed Shah Durrani, the founder of the First Afghan Dynasty, ruling the area right up to the River Indus. After the break up of his dynasty, the Sikhs entered the scene but they did not work out any sort of administration even in the settled area of NWFP. They only reached the lower reaches of mountains adjoining the tribal area in NWFP. Even in the area of NWFP they were obeyed in the immediate vicinity of their cantonments. In 1849 after the Sikhs defeat, the Imperial British entered NWFP. After organising their administration in the settled areas, they worked out number of agreements with the tribes to ensure safe passage to Afghanistan in pursuit of their imperial designs. The present system of administration is the legacy of those arrangements. This system existing since the days of Ahmad Shah Durrani, the first Afghan ruler or even before but it was codified and formalised in the form of the Frontier Crime Regulation (FCR) by the British.

3.5 This area is now called the Federal Administered Tribal Area (FATA) and lie in NWFP. FATA consists of 7 tribal agencies and 6 frontier regions. These agencies are Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, North Waziristan and South Waziristan Agencies. The 6 Frontier Regions (FRs) are FR Peshawar, FR Kohat, FR Bannu, FR Lakki, FR Tank, and FR D.I.Khan. FATA has an area of 27,220 sq.km (3.4 % of Pak land area) and a population of 3.138 million as per 1998 census but is otherwise estimated up to 7 million. In NWFP the erstwhile states of Dir, Swat, Chitral and Amb were originally declared as PATA (Provincially Administrated Tribal Areas) but have subsequently been declared as districts. Some areas of Kohistan and Kala Dhaka are still provincial administered tribal areas (PATA).

3.7 It can be seen that that the Imperial British besides considering Afghanistan as a buffer state in their grandiose design, considered the tribal area as a further buffer between Afghanistan and the sub-continent. The tribes continued to exert pressure both on rulers in Afghanistan and rulers in the sub-continent. As said earlier, at that time, the Power Base either use to be Kabul or Delhi and great armies always oscillated between the Khyber Pass and Bolan Pass but the tribes remained fiercely independent and exacted their price from any invader and took full advantage of their geographical location. There are certain lessons which can be deduced from the geo-historical perspective of this area summarised as below:-

3.7.1 Hindukush range is a formidable obstacle dividing Central Asia from South Asia but can be bypassed in the vicinity of Herat. The British ‘forward policy’ envisaged occupation of this range with listening posts close to Oxus River and a strong presence at Herat. The prohibitive cost of maintaining law and order in the present day Afghanistan prevented adoption of this course.

3.7.2 The Federal Administered Tribal Area straddling astride the famous Koh-e-Sufaid and Koh-e Sulaiman ranges, an off shoot of Hindukush range acted as a gateway for all invasions into and out of the Subcontinent.

3.7.3 The area now forming Afghanistan and North-West Frontier had seen perhaps more invasions than any other country in Asia, or indeed the world. The people living here are used to struggles, movements and wars. They do have the stamina to bear with adversity and never hesitate to engage in a dialogue even during the currency of active hostilities.

3.7.4 The Tribal Area enjoyed its independent character throughout the dynastic era and the tribes administered themselves free of any extraneous influence or pressure and cultivated a distinct socio-judicial culture based on the principles of equality, self respect and forte suiting their idiosyncrasies. This has enabled the people of the area to develop a complete code of life – Pukhtoonwali is the synonym for this code. The code is embodied in their social norms and embedded in their soul. This is also called Rewaj.

3.7.5 The tribals have accepted loose and irregular controls in lieu of matching remunerations in the form of subsidies, allowances; concessions and favors. These give and take agreements were always hammered out for securing a right of way either for marching armies or trading caravans. The phenomenon has given them the perfect art of striking out favorable deals even in most unfavorable circumstances/conditions.

3.7.6 The political relationship with the tribes was always maintained through the hierarchy of tribal chiefs/elders known as Maliks or Sufaid Reesh or Mashar in common parlance. This relationship was comprehensively formalized and institutionalized during the British era. The systemic tools, institutional mechanisms, orbit and axis dynamics, safety valves and reflex action modalities enshrined in the system speak of the effort put into shape it up.

3.7.7 The people of the Tribal Areas have unanimously and out of their own free initiative and as a result of their “Collective Will” decided and expressed their loyalty and allegiance to Pakistan in an open Jirga. This unconditional allegiance in 1947 signified their pacification with the emergence of independence and their desire to attach their destinies to Pakistan.

4. Overall Review Of Prevailing Situation

4.1. The USSR intervention in Afghanistan was not only a misadventure but they also crossed the tacitly understood limit of the two competing superpowers’ areas of influence. As soon as Soviets intervened in Afghanistan with military forces the Afghans of all ethnic groups in their true Afghan character united against this foreign aggression and started waging a resistance.

4.2. This was further supplemented by another important factor i.e. Islam. The ruler in Pakistan at that time Late General Zia-ul-Haq was himself religious minded and therefore the struggle started taking the shape of an Islamic movement called Jihad. With the active and material support of United States of America this Jihadi Culture was fully promoted without considering its consequences for Pakistan, the region and the world at large. All Muslims with extremist ideas from Middle East and Africa moved in to help in this Jihad with both material and physical support. These elements used Pakistan as a conduit for going in and out of Afghanistan. Pakistan remained oblivious to the penetration of its society by these elements. Finally, these Jihadis succeeded in forcing the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan. This misadventure on the part of USSR also acted as a last straw on the proverbial camel’s back and the Soviet Union disintegrated resulting in the creation of Central Asian Republics to the north of Afghanistan.

4.3. USA after having achieved its objectives of disintegrating USSR walked away and left Pakistan to sort out the mess created in that country. A French philosopher while analysing revolutions broadly talks of three distinct phases of any revolution. Firstly is the phase of motivating and mobilising the masses for the cause. Second phase is the actual resistance which goes about in throwing away the existing system and the third and most important phase of any revolution is to demobilise people by taking away their weapons, sending them into schools and work places and introducing the new system for which the revolution had been basically raged. This third phase is the most important and delicate one, and is the actual test of leadership of those who lead the revolution. An example of this is the Iranian revolution which in this third crucial stage was helped by Iraqi attack on Iran. This war helped the Iranian revolutionary leadership to demobilise the people and created their new state institutions based on the doctrines for which the revolution had been started.

4.4. In Afghanistan, the Afghans of all ethnic groups get united in the face of any foreign interventionist force but their unity melts away as soon as the interventionist departs. This is what exactly happened in Afghanistan and it was far beyond the capacity of Pakistan to create unity in Afghanistan. The Government of Pakistan after initial efforts gave up on this account. The Government while remaining oblivious to affairs in post Soviet Afghanistan, failed to correctly appreciate the impact of the Jihadi culture on society in Pakistan in particular and on the region generally. Subsequently as the people of Afghanistan became fed up with local warlordism, a movement in the shape of Taliban took over Afghanistan.

4.5. Our religious elements in N.W.F.P. and Balochistan provided active support to these elements. The Government of Pakistan and Saudi Arab also assisted actively the Taliban Government in spite of objections from western powers and Soviet Union. They hoped to moderate the extremist policies of Taliban but were unsuccessful. Taliban on the other hand after consolidation of their power started exhibiting more extremist tendencies and Afghanistan started becoming a core state for all Islamic religious extremist elements like Al Qaida,IMU,Harkat-ul-Ansar, Lashkar-e-Jhangwi and Jaish-e-Mohammad etc. Taliban forces committed great atrocities on ethnic minorities in the north which brought them into direct confrontation with Iran and sent tremors into Russia regarding security of Central Asian Republics. Iran, besides mobilising their forces on Afghanistan’s border, made an air bridge to support northern Alliance to oppose Talibans. Soviet Unions pumped Military hardware and money and India also started actively supporting Northern Alliance. The Taliban continued supporting Osama Bin Laden thereby losing support of Saudi Arabia and became a pariah in the international community due to their policies which violated all international norms.

4.6. Under these circumstances the tragic events of 9/11 occurred which brought the American wrath on Muslims all over the world and they physically attacked Afghanistan with full support of UN. The complications created by the revival of the obscurant Jihadi concept in this region and its effects on Pakistan are really telling. And although all the major players like the Americans, Russians, Iranians and the Indians would like to get their respective advantages out of the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan, beside becoming the worst victim in this war on terrorism is the only country being blamed for not doing enough.

4.7. The deteriorating law and order situation in the country and creeping Talibanisation in N.W.F.P. and Balochistan and suicide attacks in the country may, God forbid, if the Government fails to assert control lead this country into a civil war. Massive electoral gains by the religious elements in Baluchistan, NWFP and FATA in the 2002 elections was the result of prevalence of jihadi culture in the area and it further exacerbated the security environments of Pakistan.

4.8. In fact the main reason for fallout of this war in Pakistan is that the US led coalition attacked Afghanistan on 7th October 2001 without committing adequate ground forces to contain the adverse effects of its air assault on Pakistan. Pakistan sensing the problem had moved its Army into the tribal area for the first time since its creation to contain this fall out. However some of these foreign elements in spite of these precautions did cross the border and found safe refuge in the area of Ahmadzai Wazirs in South Waziristan. The Government of Pakistan became aware of this problem in late 2002 and used suitable political strategy to deal with the problem by soliciting the assistance of the tribes along with use of threat of force. After prolonged discussions through Jirgas and ‘Lashkarkashis’ by local tribesmen through out, it resorted to use of force in 2004, first by the Frontier Corps and then by the Army including the air force, in a surgical manner with consent and help of the tribes. As a result of these successful military operations guided sensibly by political administration the Government of Pakistan was able to drive out these elements out of the tribal area and established complete writ of the government in South Waziristan by the end of 2004.

4.9. It was at this point of time that the success went into the heads of various agencies of the government and they started acting independently of the political administration in order to gain credit for the success of the operations. They not only engaged themselves in concluding agreements with militants who had been driven out of the Agency but also facilitated their return on very loose terms and then went into a wholesale military operation in North Waziristan without involving the political administration, thereby causing huge collateral damage. Before this, the Governor along with his team who had displayed consternation over the sidelining of the political administration had been replaced with another team having no knowledge of tribal area and its dynamics. The wholesale military operation in North Waziristan causing collateral damage resulted in a complete revolt in North and South Waziristan Agency. The Governor and his team were changed again. The new Governor, although belonging to tribal area, could not afford to have tougher stance since it would risk his kith and kin residing in the tribal area contrived the ill advised North Waziristan Agreement. This agreement gave complete freedom to the militants to reorganise and recoup themselves and started challenging the writ of the government in the settled areas also. The Governor was changed once again. The militants extended their activities right in the heart of Pakistan from Peshawar through Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi.

4.10. The Government policy dealing with tribal area is perceived as being dictated by US and remains hugely unpopular. The Federal Government caught up in the search for legitimacy (the ruler being form the army) made all sorts of compromises with the politico-religious parties who remained sympathetic to the cause of Talibanisation. The menace therefore spread not only to other tribal agencies but also to the settled areas. The militants being encouraged by the lack of any comprehensive strategy in dealing with the extremist in the tribal area, started targeting sensitive installations and personalities in order to terrorise all concerned into submission. A major political leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated, a three star general was killed, and the interior minister twice escaped being killed. Sensitive installations of ISI and Special Operation Task Force were targeted with accuracy beside numerous senior police officer who were killed mercilessly.

4.11. It appears that while the terrorists advanced their campaign along with a carefully planned strategy, the government remained embroiled first in its legitimacy battle and then in General Elections. The people fed up with the Government voted in favour of parties having a clear anti terrorism stance. After the elections an uneasy truce prevails, however there are reports that Al-Qaeda in great numbers has moved into the tribal areas. It is not very clear whether their next moves would be in Afghanistan or in Pakistan. Meanwhile Talibanisation is taking roots in all other tribal agencies where they openly execute the so called kidnappers and thieves while the government remains a silent spectator.

4.12. Having briefly looked at the prevalent situation its important to see what implications it has for Afghanistan, the tribal areas and for Pakistan.

5. Implications for Afghanistan

5.1. The people in Afghanistan particularly in the south of Hindukush range, the people of tribal areas, North West Frontier Province and northern portion of Baluchistan are so interlinked geographically, sociologically, ethnologically and culturally that the situation in one side definitely affects the other. This particular stock of people has always remained fiercely independent and have always reacted very strongly to any foreign occupation. As long as the US led forces remain in Afghanistan, there will be a certain amount of reaction not only in Afghanistan but also in this part of Pakistan. The Government of Pakistan with the help of US used these inter linkages against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan to their advantage but now finds it difficult to fight this natural phenomenon. Besides this the Government of Pakistan with the present system of administration in the tribal area finds it difficult to discharge its international obligations. The border also is so difficult that it is almost impossible to stop movements across this border.

5.2. The present situation in FATA therefore definitely presents a threat to US led forces in Afghanistan and the Government of Afghanistan. However, it will be an over statement of the case to say that all problems in Afghanistan are due to situation in tribal areas and will amount to a ‘paradigm disorientation’. In fact the reverse might be a more truer description. The interference from FATA amounts to about 5-10% addition to the complex situation in Afghanistan.

6. Implications for Tribal Areas Of Pakistan

6.1. The tribal people are very proud Pakistanis but are caught up between their love for Pakistan and love for their religion and situation in Afghanistan. They supported and harboured foreigners and extremists out of fear, greed and religious feelings. However, once these extremist took over firm control over their society, they committed great atrocities over tribal people by killing their Maliks, religious leaders who opposed their ideologies and innocent people by dubbing them as spies of Pakistan, Afghanistan and/or the US. Today these extremist elements like any vigilante group proceed to get hold of anyone, try him in ten minutes in front of whole community and execute him. This is to terrorise the common tribesmen into complete submission. They physically impose archaic codes, like wearing of caps, and growing of beards. Many criminal groups have joined in for kidnapping people for ransom and hijacking vehicles. If anyone from Taliban gets killed in any crossfire, it is promptly revenged. Many respectable people of tribal area who can not cope up with this situation have left for D.I. Khan, Kohat, Peshawar, Islamabad, Karachi and even some Gulf states. These extremists even target Jirgas which are held to discuss the prevalent conditions, with devastating effects. And now even marriage and funeral ceremonies are bombed.

6.2. These are all against Pushtun traditions. Al Qaeda and Taliban who previously were getting popular are now becoming unpopular and they are relying more on the strength of their ability of terrorising the people through sheer shock tactics. If the government of Pakistan fails to restore its writ in tribal areas and Taliban continue to strengthen their hold, and if the news of moving in of Al Qaeda elements including some elements from Sudan are true, then sooner or later the US led coalition forces would feel compelled to take direct action in the tribal area with or without the consent of Government of Pakistan. This will be a real dilemma for the government of Pakistan. It would either have to pull out from the tribal area to facilitate the action of coalition forces under protest but physically taking no action or to take attack on tribal area as an act of war and resist coalition attack. Although, coalition attacks may only be restricted to the tribal area, these rogue elements will move into the settled areas of Pakistan and further endanger the federation of Pakistan. Pakistan will thus get sucked into an unwanted war. It will also be an unwanted and undesired war for the US led coalition forces.

6.3. It is therefore essential to strengthen the government of Pakistan and its forces to enable it to take action against these elements. At the same time the government of Pakistan should be given time to resolve this issue through peaceful means i.e. negotiations and the US and Afghan government should display patience without blaming Pakistan especially through the media.

7. Implications for Pakistan

7.1. Loss of control of the government and the rise of militancy in the tribal areas, not only has effects in Afghanistan which are normally over stated, it poses a direct threat to the Federation of Pakistan with implications for peace in South Area and world at large. The people of Pakistan are better educated and known for their ingenuity and enterprising habits. Therefore, any destabilisation in Pakistan comprising of 160 million people and armed with nuclear weapons could pose a far more threat to world peace. Therefore, any dangerous misadventure against Pakistan as advocated by some lobbies in Washing under the active advise and propaganda by Israeli, Indian and Afghan circles will prove a very costly undertaking and must not be even thought about. Instead the world at large needs to understand the situation in Pakistan and need to help it to overcome this problem.

7.2. The government of Pakistan needs to discuss its present policy on terrorism thoroughly in its parliament to give it popular ownership. It also must quickly device a wholesome strategy using all instruments of power including political, economic and military to deal with this problem to provide security to its own people which is a basic function of any government. This war must be fought as a war for Pakistan and if its advantages are accruing to Afghanistan or US, it must be considered as incidental. The federal government in Islamabad instead of being involved in secondary issues should consider this as priority one threat to the federation of Pakistan.

7.3. The government must not take the situation in tribal area lightly and can not wish away this situation akin to an ostrich hiding its head in sand. This monster/jinni of ‘Jihadism’ which is out of bottle can engulf the whole country. The clock is ticking and the present attitude of tribal administration led by the governor of being a bystander oblivious to what is happening is further facilitating the Talibaans in tightening their grip over the tribal society. The people of NWFP are really apprehensive of a very dangerous situation developing before their own eyes and are wondering as to why the Government appears to be so indifferent.

8. Suggested Course of Action

8.1 It is a geo historic reality that in earlier periods the people across the Hindukush Range were considered barbarian and wild hordes and used to come down on rich Indian plains for loot and plunder. Now those people under the Russian influence have become educated and civilized. Similarly the people of NWFP once considered wild have got educated and civilized. Only a small portion of land between the Hindukush and the tribal belt of Pakistan remain under developed with no education and other allied facilities. The number of people in this belt will not be more than 20 million. This very fine race being uneducated and forced to live under subhuman conditions remain vulnerable to exploitation by vested interest groups both state and non state actors. The only solution to this problem of destabilization in South Asia lie in a massive multi sectoral and multi dimensional development plan for this area. The US did create history by the famous ‘Marshal plan’ in Europe after the world war.

8.2 Since the problem in the tribal area and in Pakistan is the fallout from Afghanistan therefore until and unless the situation in Afghanistan is resolved its fallout in Pakistan can at best be minimised by it, but cannot be altogether brought to a zero level. Pakistan has suffered for last 30 years out of its total 60 years of existence because of situation in Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan must therefore stop blaming Pakistan for whatever is happening in Afghanistan and instead concentrate on improvement of situation in Afghanistan. This should be considered as a firm demand from Pakistan. The US led forces in Afghanistan need to reconsider their strategy from a military centric to a stabilisation approach. Until and unless the chaotic society in Afghanistan is brought under a proper system of governance, no peace can be expected in this region. In spite of many difficulties there is still a stabilisation force in Kosovo. There is no reason that the UN or the US should not consider this proposal seriously.

8.3 Pakistan needs to display its resolve and political will to restore its writ in the tribal area of Pakistan. The government needs to use all elements of national power to resolve this issue. The use of force should always be the last option and extreme care needs to be taken to ensure that there is no collateral damage.

8.4 The present system of administration in the tribal area should have been changed long ago as this system is neither in the interest of the common people of tribal area nor in the interest of the Government of Pakistan, as the state cannot discharge its international responsibilities under the present system. Therefore, this system needs to be changed as soon as possible. As for now as they say “you don’t change horses in mid battle”, therefore, per force the government has to work through the present system till such time that this situation is brought under control. Under the present system use of force must always be under the political administration and all agencies working in tribal areas must always be answerable to the political administration. The political administration must be headed by the governor selected on merit keeping in view his ability to deal with the current delicate and extraordinary situation in the tribal areas.

8.5 The US government, EU, Allied Forces in Afghanistan must stop pressurising Pakistani government through media and must avoid interfering in the affairs of the state of Pakistan for there is a strong perception that the western powers do not look at the nuclear capability of Pakistan with any kindness, it being an Islamic state.

9. Conclusion

9.1 The Tribal area of Pakistan and the provinces of NWFP and Baluchistan have geographical, ethnological, cultural, economical, sociological and religious linkages with Afghanistan, therefore the situation in Afghanistan will also have spill over effects in these areas of Pakistan and vice versa. The people of this area have not accepted foreign domination for long. The area on Pakistan side has a fairly good administration and the fabric of society is intact in spite of certain governance issues, however the area on the Afghanistan side has been under war and turmoil for last 30 years. This area is therefore highly chaotic and has the potential of destabilizing Pakistan with grave implications for the World peace in general and South Asia in particular. Since the problem in Afghanistan has deep religious overtones the US led Allied Forces need to reconsider their existing strategy which is too military centric towards stabilisation strategy which they are already following in Kosovo in Europe. US and Western Power also need to help Pakistan in all respects which has suffered because of situation in Afghanistan brought about by the policies of Super Powers for their own interests.

9.2 Thus no matter how much we as Pakistani’s might wish it were not so, the fates of Afghanistan the tribal areas in particular and Pakistan in general and the people inhabiting these areas are interlinked. There can be no solution in isolation to problems being faced in this area. Any permanent solution would have to encompass both sides of the divide, including the tribes who inhabit both sides of the border. But perhaps a large part of the solution lies in Afghanistan as the problem flares up for all concerned whenever a foreign entity enters Afghanistan, be it the USSR or USA or NATO.

10. A Glossary Of Common Terms Used In Tribal Areas

10.1 Nikat

Nikat is raison d’etre of the tribal system. It denotes interest in profits and losses within the tribe and between the tribes according to ancestral “wesh” (Yardstick of distribution of profits and losses). It is no less than a temporal command which is unnegotiable inspite of intervening demographic changes. Any deviation from “Nikat” invites serious trouble and no Political Administration can venture to enter into this forbidden area. Its rigidity could be imagined from the fact that in some Agencies even the ration and development outlay is based on the dictates of shares contrived under “Nikat”.

10.2 Moajib

Subsidies/allowances payable to the assured tribes are known as Moajib in the tribal parlance. It guarantees continuous allegiance of the tribes to the state. During the Mughal and Durranis period these subsidies were paid in lieu of right of way through various passes. The British Empire followed this rule for extending its hold to every new area brought under its control by means of road communication and locating Military Garrisons.

10.3 Malaki/Lungi Allowance

Malaki Allowance is hereditary whereas the Lungi Allowance is sanctioned for Political services to the administration. The later terminates on the death of the Lungi holder.

10.4 Collective Tribal Responsibility

The system of administration in the tribal areas is based on the principle of collective tribal territorial responsibility which is enshrined in the customs and usages prevailing in the tribal areas. Under this system, which has the approval of the local population, if a crime originates anywhere, the section of the tribe on whose soil the crime is committed is held accountable and answerable to the Government. It is the corner stone of Political administration.

10.5 Khassadari/Protective Responsibility

The institution of Khassadari is as old as the Malaki system itself. It was already there during Durrani’s period before annexation of tribal areas in 1849. It ensured good conduct of the tribes for safe passage through their country and thus is known as protective tribal responsibility. The British Empire strengthened this system on their ingress into tribal areas under “Forward Policy” after boundary alignment with Afghanistan in 1893. Now this system is all over FATA either in the shape of Khasadaris or the Levies. The main difference between Khassadars and the Levies is that whereas the Khassadari is hereditary and the incumbent supplies his own weapons, the government provides service rifles to the Levies and they can be replaced by selection.

Bibliography

G. B. Malleson C.S.I. Colonel History of Afghanistan from the earliest Period.

H. W. Bellew C.S.I. Surgeon Major The Races of Afghanistan.

W. K. Frazer Tytler K.B.E, C.M.G, M.C, Order of Astor (Afghan) revised by M.C. Gillett K.B.E, C.M.G Afghanistan – A Study of Political Developments in Central and Southern Asia.

My personal notes during tour of duties in Balochistan, Federal Administered Tribal Areas and North West Frontier Province as Secretary to the Government.

PAKISTAN is heading towards a political meltdown. It has fallen into a state of non-governance in the face of grave threats to its security. The situation can change if the country reinvents and rediscovers itself miraculously at this eleventh hour. This article is not designed to create despondency but to give an objective assessment of what is happening within the country and outside. An ostrich-like attitude will not really help.

The fact is that Talibanisation is taking over the country rapidly due to the lack of any tangible counter-strategy from the government’s side. The religious extremists are openly challenging the government’s writ every day and personnel of the police, Frontier Constabulary, Frontier Corps and other security agencies are being killed or kidnapped by the dozens. The government appears to be clueless about how to respond to the crisis. The extremists are not considerable in number but through sheer terror tactics they are forcing more and more people into submission. The area under their control is increasing day by day and that under the government’s jurisdiction is shrinking.

The government is resorting to shadow boxing in the media. It is constantly debating whether negotiation or the use of force is the best option. Is the threat to Peshawar real or imaginary? These are actually irrelevant discussions at this point in time. While we just talk, on the other side of the border the US-led coalition forces have redeployed themselves in Afghanistan.

They are massed across the Durand Line facing Pakistan. USS Abraham Lincoln, the aircraft carrier, has moved closer to our shores. Scores of foreign journalists are swarming all over Peshawar as they probably expect some military action in the near future. The rhetoric in Washington against Pakistan is increasing by the day. The statements from Afghanistan are assuming threatening proportions. Pakistan appears to be on a collision course and the die appears to be heavily loaded against it.

Are our leaders aware of the dangers that lurk around us? Do they have plans to deal with the situation? Let us hope they do but the people are not convinced.

The problems are enormous but not insurmountable. This is the time for the elected leadership to rise to the occasion and mobilise the people behind it. There is need for a debate in parliament with all the political parties participating irrespective of their affiliations.

All the agreements Pakistan, as a front-line state, has reached with the US in this war on terror must be brought into the open and debated. Only those commitments which are in the best interest of Pakistan should be retained while the remaining need to be scrapped with the contempt that they deserve. The policy thus worked out for dealing with internal strife and external threats should be implemented by all the agencies of the state including the army and the ISI.

Anyone failing to do so must be dealt with in accordance with the law of the land. If a robust policy is articulated at that level, the challenge can be met with the resources available. Even if we are in the midst of an international conspiracy, as many believe, we cannot deny that the stated aim of the US in the region is to fight its war on terror. Yet some people strongly feel that the Americans have a hidden agenda that is directed against Pakistan. US military maps do not show countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan but a Eurasian landmass with air bases and arcs of coverage. The US would like to stay in this region because of its proximity to Russia which could become a superpower if it reorders its economy. China, which also borders this region, is another superpower in the making.

The US also has an interest in Iran. Pakistan is the only nuclear state in the Islamic world and it is felt that the centre of gravity of the war on terror in Afghanistan is being pushed towards Pakistan with a purpose and under a plan. After all the US is the senior-most and most powerful member of the tripartite commission. Why can’t it coordinate with the other two members on vital issues?

Afghanistan is an occupied country for all practical purposes and the statements by President Hamid Karzai should not be taken lightly because he may be speaking in his master’s voice. The blast outside the Indian embassy in Kabul cannot be attributed to the ISI so easily because the time selected is most inopportune from Pakistan’s point of view. It appears, according to some circles, that some big game is being orchestrated from somewhere and that the target is Pakistan.
Will our leadership rise and measure up to the occasion? If it does, the nation will not fail its leaders.

The writer, a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army, is a former secretary home and tribal affairs, NWFP and secretary FATA.